Minimum Credible Deterrence

Minimum Credible Deterrence (MCD) is a nuclear strategy focused on deterring potential adversaries through a credible, yet minimal, nuclear arsenal. The aim is to inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation to deter a first strike. Key provisions include:

• •Deterring a first strike through credible retaliatory capability.
• •Maintaining a minimal nuclear arsenal to reduce costs and risks.
• •Ensuring credibility through survivable delivery systems and reliable weapons.
• •Often associated with a 'no first use' policy to signal a defensive posture.
• •Continuous assessment of threats and adjustments to the arsenal and strategy.

In practice, MCD relies on convincing a potential adversary that any attack, especially a nuclear one, will trigger a retaliatory strike causing unacceptable damage. This is achieved through:

• •Maintaining a diverse nuclear triad (land, air, sea-based delivery systems) to ensure survivability.
• •Investing in reliable command and control systems to guarantee a swift and decisive response.
• •Clearly communicating the nation's nuclear doctrine and red lines to potential adversaries.
• •Conducting regular testing and exercises to demonstrate the readiness and effectiveness of the nuclear arsenal.

Implementing MCD faces several challenges:

• •Maintaining credibility in the face of advancing adversary capabilities.
• •Ensuring the survivability of nuclear assets against a first strike.
• •Preventing accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
• •Managing the costs associated with maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent.
• •Addressing international concerns about nuclear proliferation and arms control.

The concept of MCD emerged during the Cold War as a strategy for smaller nuclear powers. India adopted MCD after its 1998 nuclear tests. Evolution includes:

• •From initial focus on basic deterrence to incorporating survivable delivery systems.
• •Emphasis on 'no first use' policy to project a defensive posture.
• •Continuous technological advancements like MIRV technology (Agni-V) to enhance credibility.
• •Development of a nuclear triad to ensure second-strike capability.
• •Refining command and control structures for swift and decisive response.

India's MCD is unique due to its 'no first use' policy and emphasis on credible retaliation. Key comparisons:

• •Unlike some countries, India has a declared 'no first use' policy.
• •India focuses on regional deterrence, while some countries have global ambitions.
• •India's arsenal size is relatively smaller compared to major nuclear powers.
• •India's emphasis on sea-based deterrence is growing to ensure survivability.
• •India's command and control structures are evolving to ensure swift response.

The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) plays a crucial role in India's nuclear policy decisions. Its significance lies in:

• •CCS is the key decision-making body for all matters related to national security, including nuclear weapons.
• •It authorizes nuclear tests and deployment decisions.
• •It oversees the command and control structure for nuclear weapons.
• •It reviews and approves changes to India's nuclear doctrine.
• •It ensures coordination among various government agencies involved in nuclear policy.