IMD Forecasts More Heatwave Days for India, Warns of Potential El Niño
The IMD predicts above-normal temperatures and more heatwave days for most of India, with a potential El Niño developing later in the year.
Quick Revision
IMD forecasts above-normal maximum temperatures for most parts of east, northeast, eastern central India, and adjoining peninsular regions from April to June.
More than usual heatwave days are expected over parts of east, central, northwest India, and the southeast peninsula.
Coastal Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka are likely to see heatwaves in April.
North India is expected to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.
India is likely to receive 12% more rain than usual in April.
A potential El Niño is forecasted to emerge in July.
El Niño is often linked to reduced monsoon rainfall in India.
A cooler summer could affect the onset and initial progress of the monsoon over Kerala in June.
India experienced surplus monsoon in 2024 and 2025.
Key Dates
Key Numbers
Visual Insights
IMD Forecast: Regions with Above-Normal Maximum Temperatures and Potential Heatwave Days (April-June 2026)
This map highlights the regions in India forecasted by the IMD to experience above-normal maximum temperatures and an increased number of heatwave days during the summer of 2026. North India is expected to be cooler than normal.
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Key Forecasts from IMD (2026 Summer)
Key statistical highlights from the IMD's summer forecast for 2026, focusing on temperature anomalies and potential climate phenomena.
- Regions with Above-Normal Max Temperatures
- East, Central, Peninsular India
- North India Temperature Forecast
- Cooler-than-normal
- Potential El Niño Emergence
- July-August 2026
- March 2026 Minimum Temperatures
- Second warmest in 126 years
Indicates increased risk of heat stress and heatwaves in these areas.
A contrast to other regions, suggesting localized climatic variations.
El Niño can significantly impact monsoon rainfall in India.
Indicates a trend of rising minimum temperatures, exacerbating heat stress.
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The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast of increased heatwave days and the potential emergence of El Niño in July presents a significant challenge for national policy formulation. This projection demands immediate, coordinated action across multiple ministries, particularly given the historical correlation between El Niño and reduced monsoon rainfall. We cannot afford to be complacent, despite two consecutive years of surplus monsoon.
Historically, El Niño events have severely impacted India's agricultural output, leading to inflationary pressures and rural distress. The proposed 'cooler than normal' summer in North India, while seemingly beneficial, could paradoxically hinder the monsoon's natural progression by reducing the landmass heating that typically draws moisture inland. This complex interplay necessitates a nuanced understanding beyond simple temperature readings.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, in conjunction with the IMD, must initiate proactive measures for kharif sowing. This includes early dissemination of localized weather advisories, promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, and ensuring the availability of irrigation infrastructure. Furthermore, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) should update and activate state-level Heat Action Plans, focusing on vulnerable populations and occupational groups.
Financial preparedness is equally crucial. The Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana must be streamlined to ensure timely payouts, and contingency funds for drought relief should be pre-positioned. Lessons from the 2009 and 2015 drought years, both influenced by El Niño, underscore the need for robust public distribution systems and employment generation schemes to mitigate socio-economic fallout. A 'super' El Niño, as some experts suggest, would amplify these challenges considerably.
Ultimately, this forecast is a stark reminder of India's climate vulnerability. While long-term climate adaptation strategies are underway, the immediate imperative is to strengthen our short-term resilience. This requires seamless inter-ministerial coordination, leveraging technological advancements in forecasting, and empowering local administrations to respond effectively to both heatwaves and potential monsoon deficits. Our response to this forecast will define our preparedness for future climate shocks.
Exam Angles
GS Paper 1: Geography (Climate, Weather Patterns, Natural Disasters)
GS Paper 3: Environment & Ecology (Climate Change Impacts, Disaster Management)
Current Events: Understanding IMD forecasts and their implications for India.
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Summary
India is expected to face more heatwave days this summer, especially in central and eastern regions, while North India might be cooler. There's also a chance of an El Niño developing in July, which often means less monsoon rain for India, potentially affecting farming and requiring careful planning.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an "above-normal" number of heatwave days across parts of east, central, northwest India, and the southeast Peninsula between April and June 2026. While maximum temperatures are predicted to be normal to below-normal over most of the country, minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal nationwide, except for Telangana, Maharashtra, and pockets of west Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The IMD also anticipates more heatwave days in May and June, particularly affecting regions like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, coastal Tamil Nadu, and northern Karnataka. These heatwaves could see spells extending up to nine days, significantly longer than the climatological average of 3-5 days.
Despite the heatwave forecast, April is expected to receive above-normal rainfall across most of India, attributed to frequent thunderstorms and western disturbances, which will help keep maximum temperatures in check during the early part of the season. However, northeastern India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall. March 2026 already recorded the second warmest March in 126 years concerning minimum temperatures.
Globally, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing, with a potential transition to El Niño by late July-early August, coinciding with India's southwest monsoon season. Historically, El Niño years have been associated with below-average rainfall during the monsoon. The IMD has warned that increasing heatwave conditions pose serious implications for public health, water availability, and electricity demand, with children, the elderly, and outdoor workers being the most vulnerable. Farmers are advised to take measures against heat stress, including timely harvesting and using heat-resistant crops, as heat stress can depress yields for crops like rice, maize, pulses, and vegetables, and affect fruits like mangoes and bananas.
Background
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the primary agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasts, and warnings in India. Established in 1875, it plays a crucial role in providing vital information for agriculture, disaster management, and public safety. The IMD's seasonal forecasts, particularly for the hot weather season (April-June), are critical for planning across various sectors.
The phenomenon of heatwaves is a significant concern during the summer months in India. Heatwaves are defined by specific temperature thresholds that vary by region and are declared when temperatures exceed certain limits for a sustained period. The IMD monitors these conditions closely and issues warnings to mitigate their impact on public health and the economy.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that describes the fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the corresponding changes in the atmosphere. ENSO has three phases: El Niño (warmer SSTs), La Niña (cooler SSTs), and neutral conditions. El Niño events have historically been linked to weaker monsoon rainfall in India, posing a risk to agriculture and water resources.
Latest Developments
The IMD's summer forecast for April-June 2026 indicates a "above-normal" number of heatwave days over specific regions, including east, central, and peninsular India. Concurrently, minimum temperatures are predicted to be "above-normal" across most of the country, suggesting warmer nights. This comes after March 2026 recorded the second warmest March in 126 years concerning minimum temperatures.
While the forecast points to increased heatwave activity later in the season, April is expected to see "above-normal" rainfall due to western disturbances and thunderstorms, which will help moderate maximum temperatures initially. However, northeastern India is projected to receive below-normal rainfall. The IMD also noted the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions, with a possibility of El Niño developing by late July-early August, a factor that could influence the southwest monsoon.
The IMD has issued warnings about the potential public health, water, and electricity demand implications of increased heatwave conditions. Farmers are being advised on mitigation strategies against heat stress, including timely harvesting and adopting heat-resistant crop varieties, to safeguard yields and protect crops like mangoes and bananas.
Sources & Further Reading
Practice Questions (MCQs)
1. Consider the following statements regarding the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) summer forecast for April-June 2026: 1. Maximum temperatures are expected to be above-normal over most parts of the country. 2. Minimum temperatures are predicted to be above-normal across the country, with few exceptions. 3. Above-normal heatwave days are forecast for parts of east, central, northwest India, and the southeast Peninsula. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- A.1 only
- B.2 and 3 only
- C.1 and 3 only
- D.1, 2 and 3
Show Answer
Answer: B
Statement 1 is incorrect. The IMD forecast indicates that maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below-normal over most parts of the country. Statement 2 is correct, as minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal across the country, except for Telangana, Maharashtra, and some pockets of west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan. Statement 3 is correct, as above-normal heatwave days are forecast for parts of east, central, northwest India, and the southeast Peninsula.
2. Which of the following factors is mentioned by the IMD as a reason for keeping maximum temperatures in check during April 2026, despite the overall heatwave forecast?
- A.The emergence of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean
- B.The continuation of La Niña conditions
- C.The prevalence of thunderstorms and western disturbances
- D.A decrease in humidity levels across the country
Show Answer
Answer: C
The IMD Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, stated that "thunderstorms, above-average rainfall and the prevalence of cloudy sky conditions will keep the maximum temperatures range between normal and below this summer season." Specifically for April, the forecast mentions that "above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country except Northeast India" due to "frequent thunderstorms" and "western disturbances." El Niño (Option A) is a potential future development, not a current factor for April's cooling. La Niña (Option B) is transitioning to neutral. Humidity levels (Option D) are generally associated with warmer nights, not cooler days.
3. Which of the following statements accurately describes the potential impact of El Niño conditions on India, as per historical observations and current forecasts?
- A.El Niño typically leads to above-average rainfall during India's southwest monsoon season.
- B.El Niño conditions are expected to prevail throughout India's southwest monsoon season in 2026.
- C.In the past, El Niño years have often resulted in below-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.
- D.El Niño primarily affects winter rainfall patterns, with minimal impact on the monsoon.
Show Answer
Answer: C
The source states that "In the past, El Niño years have resulted in India recording below-average rainfall during the southwest monsoon season." Option A is the opposite of this historical trend. Option B is speculative about the duration; the forecast mentions emergence by late July-early August. Option D is incorrect as El Niño's primary impact on India is through the monsoon season.
4. Which of the following regions are NOT expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures according to the IMD's summer forecast?
- A.Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh
- B.Bihar, West Bengal, Assam
- C.Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, coastal regions
- D.Most parts of the country, except for specific eastern and central regions
Show Answer
Answer: D
The IMD forecast states that "maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below-normal over most parts of the country, even as the minimum temperatures are set to be 'above-normal'." It then lists exceptions where above-normal maximum temperatures will affect regions like Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Sikkim, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and along the west coast. Therefore, most parts of the country are expected to have normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.
Source Articles
East, central and northwest India to witness more heatwave days than usual: IMD - The Hindu
Above-normal heatwave days likely in most parts of India during March-May: IMD - The Hindu
India braces for hotter-than-normal summer, more heatwave days expected - The Hindu
Heatwave onslaught in large parts of India - The Hindu
Heatwave alert: Brutal heat in large parts of India; temperatures set to rise further, says IMD - The Hindu
About the Author
Anshul MannEnvironment & Climate Policy Analyst
Anshul Mann writes about Environment & Ecology at GKSolver, breaking down complex developments into clear, exam-relevant analysis.
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