25 Feb 2026·Source: The Hindu

5 min

International RelationsEconomyPolity & GovernanceNEWS

Russia-Ukraine War: Casualties, Economic Impact, and Geopolitical Implications After Four Years

Q: Given that the war has been ongoing for four years, what are the key arguments for and against India taking a more active diplomatic role in resolving the conflict?

Arguments for India taking a more active role: * Growing Global Influence: India's rising global profile and its historical ties with both Russia and Ukraine give it a unique position to mediate. * Economic Interests: A peaceful resolution would stabilize the region and reduce the impact on global commodity prices, benefiting India's economy. * Humanitarian Concerns: India could play a role in facilitating humanitarian aid and promoting dialogue between the parties. Arguments against India taking a more active role: * Risk of Alienating Russia: India's close relationship with Russia could be strained if it takes a position that is perceived as critical of Russia. * Limited Leverage: India's influence on the conflict parties may be limited, and its efforts may not be successful. * Focus on Domestic Priorities: India may prefer to focus on its domestic priorities and avoid getting entangled in a complex international conflict. Exam tip: When analyzing India's foreign policy options, consider the trade-offs between its strategic interests, economic considerations, and humanitarian concerns. Present a balanced perspective, acknowledging the potential benefits and risks of different courses of action.

Q: The article mentions a large number of Ukrainian refugees. What international conventions and organizations are relevant to the protection and assistance of these refugees, and how effective have they been?

Key conventions and organizations include: * 1951 Refugee Convention: Defines who is a refugee and outlines their rights and the obligations of states to protect them. * UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees): The lead UN agency for protecting refugees and providing assistance. * International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC): Provides humanitarian assistance to those affected by conflict, including refugees. Effectiveness: * Protection: While the conventions provide a legal framework, the actual protection of refugees varies depending on the host country's policies and resources. * Assistance: UNHCR and other organizations have provided significant assistance, but the scale of the crisis has strained their resources. * Challenges: Challenges include ensuring access to asylum, providing adequate shelter and healthcare, and preventing discrimination and xenophobia. Exam tip: When discussing international conventions and organizations, consider their mandates, their effectiveness in addressing the issue, and the challenges they face. Also, consider India's role and obligations in the context of these conventions.

Q: Given the high casualty figures on both sides, what are the potential long-term social and demographic consequences for both Russia and Ukraine?

Potential long-term consequences include: * Demographic Decline: High casualty rates and refugee outflows can lead to a decline in the population, particularly among young men. * Social Trauma: The war can cause widespread trauma and mental health issues, affecting social cohesion and productivity. * Economic Strain: The loss of human capital and the cost of supporting veterans and families of the deceased can put a strain on the economy. * Political Instability: The war can exacerbate existing social and political divisions, leading to instability and conflict. Exam tip: When analyzing the consequences of war, consider the long-term social, demographic, and economic impacts on the affected countries. Think about how these impacts can shape their future development and stability.

Four years of war in Ukraine bring severe casualties and economic strain.

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the conflict continues with no end in sight, resulting in over 15,000 verified Ukrainian civilian deaths and 41,000 injuries, according to the UN. International think tanks estimate 325,000 Russian troops and 140,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed. The World Bank estimates Ukraine's reconstruction costs at $588 billion. Russia controls just over 19% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine seized in 2014.

Technology has become central to the conflict, with drones used for reconnaissance, airstrikes, and even targeting individual soldiers. Russia has deployed Iranian-designed Shahed drones against Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine has struck targets inside Russia, including oil refineries. The fighting has displaced 3.7 million Ukrainians internally and forced over 5.3 million to seek refuge abroad. Ukraine alleges that Russia has deported or forcibly moved approximately 20,000 Ukrainian children from occupied territories.

Western sanctions have impacted the Russian economy, with growth slowing to 1% in 2025. The Trump administration has sanctioned Russian energy companies and threatened tariffs on countries like India for purchasing Russian crude oil. U.S.-led talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled over territorial demands, with Russia insisting Ukraine cede territory, including areas not currently under Russian control. Ukraine refuses to concede any territory, constitutionally requiring a referendum for any land transfer.

This ongoing conflict has significant implications for India, particularly concerning energy security, trade relations, and geopolitical alignment, relevant for UPSC Mains GS Paper II (International Relations) and Paper III (Economy).

Key Facts

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The United Nations has verified over 15,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine since 2022.

The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs in Ukraine at around $588 billion over the next decade.

Around 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees live outside the country, and 3.7 million are displaced internally.

UPSC Exam Angles

GS Paper II (International Relations): Impact of the war on global geopolitics and India's foreign policy.

GS Paper III (Economy): Effects of sanctions on the Russian economy and global trade.

GS Paper I (History): Historical context of Russia-Ukraine relations and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In Simple Words

The war between Russia and Ukraine has caused a lot of damage and suffering. Many people have died or had to leave their homes. The economies of both countries are struggling because of the conflict.

India Angle

In India, rising global oil prices due to the war can affect transportation costs and the prices of essential goods. This could impact the household budgets of ordinary Indians.

For Instance

Think of it like when your local vegetable vendor has to increase prices because the cost of transporting goods from the farm has gone up due to higher fuel prices. This is similar to how the war affects global markets and eventually, your wallet.

The war affects the global economy, which in turn impacts the prices of goods and services we use every day. Understanding this helps us make informed decisions about our finances and support policies that promote peace and stability.

Wars have far-reaching consequences, affecting not just the countries involved but also the global economy and everyday lives.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, leading to widespread destruction and numerous consequences for both countries. Over 15,000 civilian deaths have been verified by the United Nations, with the actual number expected to be higher. The World Bank estimates reconstruction costs in Ukraine at around $588 billion over the next decade.

Around 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees live outside the country, and 3.7 million are displaced internally. Military casualties are substantial, with estimates suggesting hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed on both sides. The conflict has significantly impacted both economies.

Ukraine's economy shrank by almost a third, while Russia's economy has slowed despite increased military spending. The war has also led to political and societal changes, including suspended elections in Ukraine and a crackdown on dissent in Russia. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Western aid, while Russia has found support from North Korea, Iran, and China.

Expert Analysis

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war highlights several key concepts in international relations and economics. The concept of Sovereignty, which is the supreme authority of a state to govern itself, is central to the conflict. Russia's invasion of Ukraine directly challenges Ukraine's sovereignty, as Russia seeks to control Ukrainian territory and influence its political alignment. This violation of sovereignty has led to widespread international condemnation and sanctions against Russia.

Another critical concept is Economic Sanctions, which are trade restrictions and financial penalties imposed by one or more countries against a target country. The West has imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia since the 2022 invasion, targeting its energy sector, financial institutions, and key individuals. While these sanctions have slowed Russia's economic growth, they have not yet forced Russia to end the war. The effectiveness of economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy remains a subject of debate.

The concept of a War of Attrition, where each side attempts to wear down the other through sustained losses of personnel and resources, accurately describes the current state of the conflict. The CSIS estimates that Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties since February 2022, while Ukraine has suffered up to 600,000. This high casualty rate, combined with the slow pace of territorial gains, indicates that neither side is currently capable of achieving a decisive victory. The war is likely to continue until one side exhausts its resources or reaches a political settlement.

Finally, the role of International Organizations like the UN is crucial. The UN has confirmed over 15,000 Ukrainian civilian deaths and facilitated the export of Ukrainian wheat to alleviate global food shortages. However, the UN Security Council is unable to take decisive action to end the war due to Russia's veto power. This highlights the limitations of international organizations in addressing conflicts involving major powers.

For UPSC aspirants, understanding these concepts is essential for both Prelims and Mains. Prelims questions may focus on definitions and applications of sovereignty, economic sanctions, and war of attrition. Mains questions may require analyzing the causes and consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, the effectiveness of international organizations, and India's foreign policy options.

More Information

Background

The Russia-Ukraine war is rooted in a complex history of political, cultural, and economic ties between the two countries. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991, after which it declared independence. However, Russia has maintained a strong interest in Ukraine due to its strategic location and historical connections. The NATO expansion eastward has also been a point of contention, with Russia viewing it as a threat to its security. The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the subsequent conflict in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region marked a significant escalation in tensions. Russia supported separatist movements in Donbas, leading to a prolonged conflict that claimed thousands of lives. These events set the stage for the full-scale invasion in 2022, as Russia sought to prevent Ukraine from aligning with the West and potentially joining NATO. The conflict also has implications for international law and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia's actions have been widely condemned as a violation of international law, and the war has raised questions about the effectiveness of international institutions in maintaining peace and security.

Latest Developments

In recent years, diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have been largely unsuccessful. The Minsk agreements, which aimed to establish a ceasefire and political settlement in Donbas, failed to be fully implemented. The Normandy Format talks, involving France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, have also made little progress. The election of Donald Trump in 2024 and his subsequent attempts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine have further complicated the situation. The war has also led to significant shifts in European security architecture. Several countries, including Finland and Sweden, have moved closer to NATO membership in response to Russia's aggression. The European Union has increased its defense spending and is seeking to enhance its military capabilities. These developments reflect a growing sense of insecurity in Europe and a renewed focus on collective defense. Looking ahead, the future of the conflict remains uncertain. A negotiated settlement appears unlikely in the near term, as both sides remain far apart on key issues. The war is likely to continue as a war of attrition, with both sides seeking to wear down the other through sustained military and economic pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. The article mentions reconstruction costs of $588 billion. What specific aspects of this reconstruction would be most relevant for UPSC Mains GS Paper 3 (Economy)?

The $588 billion reconstruction cost for Ukraine is relevant to GS Paper 3 (Economy) in several ways: * Resource Mobilization: How will Ukraine finance this? Will it be through aid, loans, or attracting foreign investment? This links to India's own development financing challenges. * Impact on Global Commodity Prices: Reconstruction will drive demand for steel, cement, and energy, potentially impacting global prices and affecting India's import bill. * Opportunities for Indian Businesses: Indian companies in construction, engineering, and IT services could potentially participate in the reconstruction effort. * Geopolitical Implications for Trade: The reconstruction effort could reshape trade routes and economic alliances in the region, potentially impacting India's trade interests.

Exam Tip

When a question mentions a large financial figure, always consider its implications for resource allocation, trade, and investment flows. Think about how it connects to India's economic interests and challenges.

2. The article mentions the Minsk agreements. What exactly went wrong with the Minsk agreements that prevented them from resolving the conflict?

The Minsk agreements failed due to a combination of factors: * Differing Interpretations: Russia and Ukraine had fundamentally different interpretations of the agreements, particularly regarding the sequence of political and security measures. * Lack of Trust: There was a deep lack of trust between the parties, with each accusing the other of violating the ceasefire and failing to implement key provisions. * Limited International Enforcement: The international community, particularly the Normandy Format countries, lacked the leverage to effectively enforce the agreements. * Unresolved Status of Donbas: The agreements failed to provide a clear and mutually acceptable solution for the status of the Donbas region, which remained a major point of contention.

Exam Tip

When analyzing the failure of peace agreements, consider the roles of differing interpretations, lack of trust, enforcement mechanisms, and the underlying political issues.

3. How does the Russia-Ukraine war and its economic consequences potentially affect India's energy security, considering India's reliance on both countries for certain commodities?

The Russia-Ukraine war impacts India's energy security through: * Increased Energy Prices: The war has disrupted global energy markets, leading to higher prices for oil and natural gas, increasing India's import bill. * Disruption of Supply Chains: Sanctions and logistical challenges have disrupted supply chains for commodities like coal and fertilizers, affecting India's power generation and agriculture. * Geopolitical Risks: The war has increased geopolitical risks in the region, potentially impacting India's access to energy resources in Central Asia and Russia. * Opportunity for Diversification: The crisis may incentivize India to diversify its energy sources and invest in renewable energy to reduce its dependence on volatile global markets.

Exam Tip

When analyzing the impact of international conflicts on India, always consider the implications for energy security, trade, and investment. Think about how India can mitigate the risks and capitalize on the opportunities.

4. Given that the war has been ongoing for four years, what are the key arguments for and against India taking a more active diplomatic role in resolving the conflict?

Arguments for India taking a more active role: * Growing Global Influence: India's rising global profile and its historical ties with both Russia and Ukraine give it a unique position to mediate. * Economic Interests: A peaceful resolution would stabilize the region and reduce the impact on global commodity prices, benefiting India's economy. * Humanitarian Concerns: India could play a role in facilitating humanitarian aid and promoting dialogue between the parties. Arguments against India taking a more active role: * Risk of Alienating Russia: India's close relationship with Russia could be strained if it takes a position that is perceived as critical of Russia. * Limited Leverage: India's influence on the conflict parties may be limited, and its efforts may not be successful. * Focus on Domestic Priorities: India may prefer to focus on its domestic priorities and avoid getting entangled in a complex international conflict.

Exam Tip

When analyzing India's foreign policy options, consider the trade-offs between its strategic interests, economic considerations, and humanitarian concerns. Present a balanced perspective, acknowledging the potential benefits and risks of different courses of action.

5. The article mentions the use of drones. How has the Russia-Ukraine war changed the nature of modern warfare, and what implications does this have for India's defense strategy?

The Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the following changes in modern warfare: * Increased Use of Drones: Drones are used for reconnaissance, airstrikes, and targeting individual soldiers, making warfare more precise and lethal. * Importance of Cyber Warfare: Cyberattacks are used to disrupt critical infrastructure and spread disinformation, highlighting the importance of cybersecurity. * Role of Social Media: Social media is used to shape public opinion and influence the course of the conflict, demonstrating the importance of information warfare. Implications for India's defense strategy: * Investing in Drone Technology: India needs to invest in developing its own drone capabilities for surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike operations. * Strengthening Cybersecurity: India needs to strengthen its cybersecurity infrastructure to protect against cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. * Developing Information Warfare Capabilities: India needs to develop its capabilities to counter disinformation and influence operations.

Exam Tip

When discussing the impact of technology on warfare, consider the implications for both offensive and defensive capabilities. Think about how India can leverage technology to enhance its national security.

6. The article mentions Donald Trump's attempts to mediate. How might a change in US foreign policy towards the Russia-Ukraine war affect India's strategic calculations?

A shift in US foreign policy could significantly impact India: * Reduced US Support for Ukraine: If the US reduces its support for Ukraine, Russia might gain an advantage, potentially altering the geopolitical landscape and impacting India's relationship with both countries. * Increased Pressure on India: The US might pressure India to take a stronger stance against Russia, potentially straining their historically close ties. * Impact on Global Order: A change in US policy could weaken the international coalition against Russia, potentially undermining the rules-based global order. * Opportunities for India: A more neutral US stance could create opportunities for India to play a greater mediating role.

Exam Tip

When analyzing the impact of US foreign policy on India, consider the implications for India's strategic partnerships, economic interests, and its role in the international system. Always consider multiple scenarios and their potential consequences.

7. The article mentions a large number of Ukrainian refugees. What international conventions and organizations are relevant to the protection and assistance of these refugees, and how effective have they been?

Key conventions and organizations include: * 1951 Refugee Convention: Defines who is a refugee and outlines their rights and the obligations of states to protect them. * UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees): The lead UN agency for protecting refugees and providing assistance. * International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC): Provides humanitarian assistance to those affected by conflict, including refugees. Effectiveness: * Protection: While the conventions provide a legal framework, the actual protection of refugees varies depending on the host country's policies and resources. * Assistance: UNHCR and other organizations have provided significant assistance, but the scale of the crisis has strained their resources. * Challenges: Challenges include ensuring access to asylum, providing adequate shelter and healthcare, and preventing discrimination and xenophobia.

Exam Tip

When discussing international conventions and organizations, consider their mandates, their effectiveness in addressing the issue, and the challenges they face. Also, consider India's role and obligations in the context of these conventions.

8. The article mentions that Russia controls just over 19% of Ukrainian territory. What are the implications of this territorial control for Ukraine's long-term economic viability and political stability?

The implications of Russian territorial control are significant: * Economic Impact: Loss of access to resources, industrial capacity, and agricultural land in the occupied territories significantly impacts Ukraine's GDP and export potential. * Political Instability: The ongoing conflict and the presence of Russian forces create a climate of instability and uncertainty, hindering investment and development. * Refugee Crisis: The displacement of millions of people from the occupied territories creates a humanitarian crisis and puts a strain on Ukraine's resources. * Geopolitical Implications: Russian control over Ukrainian territory undermines Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, creating a precedent for future conflicts.

Exam Tip

When analyzing the impact of territorial disputes, consider the economic, political, and social consequences for the affected countries. Think about how these disputes can escalate into larger conflicts and undermine regional stability.

9. For UPSC Prelims, what is the key significance of February 24, 2022, and what is a likely distractor option related to this date?

Key Significance: February 24, 2022, marks the date Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Likely Distractor: A distractor option might be a date related to the annexation of Crimea (e.g., 2014) or the start of the conflict in Donbas. Examiners might try to confuse the full-scale invasion with earlier events. examTip: Remember the specific event associated with each date. Create a timeline of key events to avoid confusion.

Exam Tip

Create a timeline of key events in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to avoid confusion. Pay attention to the specific events associated with each date.

10. Given the high casualty figures on both sides, what are the potential long-term social and demographic consequences for both Russia and Ukraine?

Potential long-term consequences include: * Demographic Decline: High casualty rates and refugee outflows can lead to a decline in the population, particularly among young men. * Social Trauma: The war can cause widespread trauma and mental health issues, affecting social cohesion and productivity. * Economic Strain: The loss of human capital and the cost of supporting veterans and families of the deceased can put a strain on the economy. * Political Instability: The war can exacerbate existing social and political divisions, leading to instability and conflict.

Exam Tip

When analyzing the consequences of war, consider the long-term social, demographic, and economic impacts on the affected countries. Think about how these impacts can shape their future development and stability.

Practice Questions (MCQs)

1. Consider the following statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine war: 1. The UN has confirmed over 15,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine as a result of the war. 2. The World Bank estimates Ukraine's reconstruction costs to be approximately $588 billion. 3. Russia currently controls over 26% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A.1 and 2 only
B.2 and 3 only
C.1 and 3 only
D.1, 2 and 3

Show Answer

Answer: A

Statement 1 is CORRECT: The UN has confirmed over 15,000 civilian deaths in Ukraine due to the war. Statement 2 is CORRECT: The World Bank estimates Ukraine's reconstruction costs at $588 billion. Statement 3 is INCORRECT: Russia controls just over 19% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine seized in 2014. The figure of 26% was at the height of Russia's gains in 2022.

2. Which of the following statements best describes the concept of a 'War of Attrition' as it relates to the Russia-Ukraine conflict? A) A war characterized by rapid territorial gains and decisive victories. B) A war in which each side attempts to wear down the other through sustained losses. C) A war primarily fought through cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns. D) A war focused on maintaining control of key strategic resources without direct military engagement.

Show Answer

Answer: B

Option B is the correct answer. A 'War of Attrition' is characterized by each side attempting to wear down the other through sustained losses of personnel and resources. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a war of attrition due to the high casualty rates and slow pace of territorial gains.

3. Assertion (A): The UN Security Council has been unable to take decisive action to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Reason (R): Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, holds veto power. In the context of the above statements, which of the following is correct? A) Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A. B) Both A and R are true, but R is not the correct explanation of A. C) A is true, but R is false. D) A is false, but R is true.

Show Answer

Answer: A

Both A and R are true, and R is the correct explanation of A. The UN Security Council's ability to act on the Russia-Ukraine war is constrained by Russia's veto power as a permanent member. This veto power prevents the Council from passing resolutions that condemn Russia's actions or authorize military intervention.

4. With reference to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, what is the primary significance of the Minsk agreements? A) They formally recognized Russia's annexation of Crimea. B) They established a framework for a ceasefire and political settlement in the Donbas region. C) They led to Ukraine's membership in NATO. D) They imposed economic sanctions on Russia.

Show Answer

Answer: B

The Minsk agreements, primarily the Minsk II agreement of 2015, aimed to establish a ceasefire and political settlement in the Donbas region of Ukraine. However, the agreements were never fully implemented, and the conflict continued.