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5 Jan 2026·Source: The Hindu
6 min
International RelationsEconomyPolity & GovernanceEDITORIAL

China's Foreign Policy Under Xi Jinping: Assertiveness and Economic Challenges

China's assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping faces economic headwinds and global caution.

China's Foreign Policy Under Xi Jinping: Assertiveness and Economic Challenges

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Editorial Analysis

The author views China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping as overly assertive and driven by a sense of hubris, which is leading to global pushback and internal economic vulnerabilities. He suggests that this approach is unsustainable and calls for caution.

Main Arguments:

  1. China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping is characterized by increasing assertiveness and 'wolf warrior' diplomacy, leading to global caution and resistance.
  2. Despite its economic might, China faces significant internal economic challenges, including slowing growth, a real estate crisis, and demographic issues, which undermine its global standing.
  3. China's strategy of technological self-reliance and supply chain resilience, while a response to external pressures, risks further decoupling from the global economy and increasing isolation.

Conclusion

China's current assertive foreign policy, driven by hubris, is encountering significant global resistance and internal economic vulnerabilities, necessitating a more cautious and nuanced approach to maintain its global standing.

Policy Implications

China needs to re-evaluate its foreign policy to avoid further isolation and manage internal economic challenges. For other nations, including India, it implies strengthening strategic partnerships and building resilience against China's assertive moves.
The Issue The editorial analyzes China's foreign policy trajectory under President Xi Jinping, characterized by increasing assertiveness and a "wolf warrior" diplomacy. It delves into the internal and external factors shaping this policy, including China's economic challenges and the global response, particularly from the United States and its allies, highlighting the implications for India and the broader Indo-Pacific region. Author's Main Argument The author argues that China's current foreign policy, driven by a mix of hubris and a desire for global dominance, is increasingly encountering caution and resistance from the international community. Despite its economic might, China faces significant internal economic vulnerabilities and external pushback, necessitating a more nuanced and less confrontational approach to maintain its global standing and avoid further isolation. Supporting Arguments The editorial points out that China's economic growth, while impressive, is slowing down, and it faces structural issues like a real estate crisis and demographic challenges. This internal pressure, combined with its assertive stance on issues like the South China Sea, Taiwan, and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has led to a hardening of positions from the U.S. and its allies. The author notes that China's strategy of technological self-reliance and supply chain resilience is a response to these external pressures, but it also risks further decoupling from the global economy. Counter-Perspectives While the editorial primarily focuses on the challenges China faces, it implicitly acknowledges that China's assertiveness is also a response to perceived encirclement by the U.S. and its allies. China views its actions as protecting its core national interests and reclaiming its historical position in the world order, rather than pure aggression. However, the editorial's overall tone suggests that this perspective is not fully justified given the impact on regional stability. Policy Implications For India, the implications are significant. India needs to carefully navigate its relationship with an assertive China, balancing cooperation with competition. The editorial suggests that India should strengthen its strategic partnerships, particularly with the U.S. and other like-minded democracies, to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. It also implies that India should continue to invest in its own economic and military capabilities to maintain strategic autonomy and regional stability. Exam Relevance This editorial is highly relevant for UPSC GS Paper 2 (International Relations, India-China Relations, Effect of Policies & Politics of Developed & Developing Countries on India's Interests) and GS Paper 3 (Economy - global economic trends). It offers a comprehensive analysis of a critical geopolitical relationship.

Key Facts

1.

China's foreign policy: Assertive 'wolf warrior' diplomacy under Xi Jinping

2.

Economic challenges: Slowing growth, real estate crisis, demographic issues

3.

Geopolitical tensions: South China Sea, Taiwan, BRI

4.

Global response: U.S. and allies' pushback, decoupling

5.

India's strategy: Balance cooperation and competition with China

UPSC Exam Angles

1.

GS Paper 2: International Relations - India-China relations, foreign policy doctrines, regional groupings (SCO, BRICS)

2.

GS Paper 2: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests.

3.

GS Paper 3: Economy - Global economic trends, trade wars, supply chain resilience, debt diplomacy.

Visual Insights

China's Assertiveness & BRI Footprint in Indo-Pacific (Jan 2026)

This map illustrates key areas of China's geopolitical assertiveness and the reach of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) across the Indo-Pacific region, highlighting strategic flashpoints and connectivity projects. It shows the broad impact of China's foreign policy on regional stability and India's strategic environment.

Loading interactive map...

📍South China Sea📍Taiwan Strait📍Line of Actual Control (LAC), India-China Border📍Gwadar Port, Pakistan (CPEC)📍Hambantota Port, Sri Lanka (BRI)📍Djibouti (BRI & Military Base)📍Strait of Malacca

China's Key Economic Challenges (2025-2026 Estimates)

This dashboard presents key economic indicators reflecting China's internal vulnerabilities, including slowing GDP growth, real estate sector distress, and demographic shifts, which influence its foreign policy decisions.

GDP Growth Rate
4.1%-0.4%

China's economic growth is projected to continue its deceleration from its peak, impacting global growth and China's capacity for overseas investment. This slowdown puts pressure on the government to maintain stability.

Real Estate Sector Debt
~$5.5 TrillionStable (High)

The real estate crisis, with major developers facing defaults and unfinished projects, remains a significant systemic risk, affecting consumer confidence and financial stability.

Youth Unemployment (16-24)
~18%Stable (High)

High youth unemployment poses social and political challenges, potentially fueling discontent and impacting long-term economic productivity.

Population Growth Rate
-0.05%Continuing Decline

China's population is shrinking and aging rapidly, leading to a declining workforce and increased pressure on social welfare systems, impacting future economic potential.

More Information

Background

China's foreign policy trajectory before Xi Jinping was largely shaped by Deng Xiaoping's pragmatic dictum of 'hide your strength, bide your time' (韬光养晦 - taoguang yanghui). This approach, adopted in the post-Tiananmen era, prioritized economic development and avoided direct confrontation with established powers, fostering a period of 'peaceful rise'. Jiang Zemin's 'going out' strategy encouraged Chinese enterprises to expand globally, while Hu Jintao promoted a 'harmonious world' concept, aiming to project China as a responsible stakeholder in multilateral institutions.

This era focused on creating a stable external environment for domestic growth and gradually accumulating national power without alarming the international community. The current assertiveness under Xi Jinping marks a significant departure, reflecting China's accumulated economic and military might and a perceived opportunity to actively reshape the global order, moving beyond the cautious diplomacy of previous decades.

Latest Developments

In recent years, China has intensified its efforts to build parallel international institutions and frameworks, such as the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI), positioning them as alternatives to Western-led norms. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to expand, though it faces increasing scrutiny over debt sustainability, environmental impacts, and geopolitical influence in recipient countries. The digital component of BRI, the 'Digital Silk Road', aims to establish Chinese dominance in global digital infrastructure.

The technological rivalry with the United States has escalated significantly, leading to export controls on advanced semiconductors and a concerted push by China for domestic technological self-reliance. Domestically, China grapples with a prolonged real estate crisis, substantial local government debt, and a rapidly aging population, which pose significant headwinds to its long-term economic growth and could influence its foreign policy calculus, potentially leading to both increased nationalism and a need for external stability.

Practice Questions (MCQs)

1. With reference to China's foreign policy evolution, consider the following statements: 1. Deng Xiaoping's 'taoguang yanghui' doctrine emphasized active global leadership and direct confrontation with established powers. 2. The 'harmonious world' concept under Hu Jintao sought to project China as a responsible stakeholder in multilateral institutions. 3. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched during the period of 'peaceful rise' to promote global infrastructure development. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  • A.1 only
  • B.2 only
  • C.2 and 3 only
  • D.1, 2 and 3
Show Answer

Answer: B

Statement 1 is incorrect. Deng Xiaoping's 'taoguang yanghui' (hide your strength, bide your time) doctrine emphasized avoiding direct confrontation and maintaining a low profile, not active global leadership or direct confrontation. Statement 2 is correct. The 'harmonious world' concept under Hu Jintao indeed aimed to project China as a responsible and cooperative global actor. Statement 3 is incorrect. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was launched in 2013 under Xi Jinping, marking a departure from the 'peaceful rise' era and signifying a more assertive foreign policy.

2. Which of the following statements best describes the concept of 'wolf warrior diplomacy' in the context of China's foreign policy? A) A diplomatic strategy focused on multilateral cooperation and consensus-building to resolve international disputes. B) A proactive and often aggressive diplomatic style characterized by assertive public rhetoric and strong defense of perceived national interests. C) A policy aimed at fostering economic interdependence and cultural exchange to enhance soft power globally. D) A military-led foreign policy primarily focused on territorial expansion and direct military intervention.

  • A.A diplomatic strategy focused on multilateral cooperation and consensus-building to resolve international disputes.
  • B.A proactive and often aggressive diplomatic style characterized by assertive public rhetoric and strong defense of perceived national interests.
  • C.A policy aimed at fostering economic interdependence and cultural exchange to enhance soft power globally.
  • D.A military-led foreign policy primarily focused on territorial expansion and direct military intervention.
Show Answer

Answer: B

Option B accurately describes 'wolf warrior diplomacy'. It refers to a style of diplomacy adopted by Chinese diplomats in the 21st century, particularly under Xi Jinping, characterized by a more confrontational and assertive approach, often using strong language to defend China's national interests and challenge perceived criticisms from Western countries. Options A, C, and D describe different or incorrect aspects of diplomatic approaches.

Part of Story Threads

Indo-Pacific Geopolitical Developments - January 2026

A snapshot of key events and trends shaping the Indo-Pacific region in January 2026, including defense cooperation, strategic infrastructure development, and foreign policy shifts.

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