IMD Predicts More Cold Wave Days for Parts of India This Winter
The IMD predicts that parts of India, especially the northwest, may experience more cold wave days this winter due to La Niña conditions.
Photo by Milin John
Quick Revision
IMD predicts more cold wave days for parts of India this winter.
Northwest India is particularly expected to be affected.
The forecast is attributed to prevailing La Niña conditions.
Cold waves can impact agriculture, human health, and energy demand.
Visual Insights
IMD Cold Wave Forecast: Regions at Risk This Winter
This map illustrates the parts of India, particularly the Northwest, that are predicted to experience more cold wave days this winter due to prevailing La Niña conditions. It highlights the regions most susceptible to the impacts on agriculture, health, and energy.
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Exam Angles
Understanding the mechanism and global/regional impacts of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña).
Role and functions of IMD and its forecasting capabilities.
Impact of extreme weather events (cold waves, heatwaves, droughts, floods) on Indian agriculture, economy, and public health.
Disaster management strategies and policies related to extreme weather phenomena.
Geographical factors influencing India's climate, including Western Disturbances and jet streams.
Climate change implications on frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
View Detailed Summary
Summary
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting that parts of India, particularly the northwest, might experience more cold wave days this winter compared to previous years. What's behind this? The IMD attributes this to the prevailing La Niña conditions, a climate pattern that typically brings colder winters to certain regions.
This forecast is crucial because cold waves can have significant impacts on agriculture, human health (especially vulnerable populations), and energy demand. Understanding these predictions helps in better disaster preparedness and public health advisories.
Background
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño and La Niña are the two opposite phases of ENSO. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, while La Niña is characterized by colder-than-average sea surface temperatures.
These phenomena significantly influence global weather patterns, including monsoons and winter temperatures in India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology in India.
Latest Developments
The IMD has predicted an increase in cold wave days for parts of India, particularly the northwest, during the upcoming winter season. This forecast is primarily attributed to the prevailing La Niña conditions.
Cold waves pose significant risks to agriculture, human health (especially vulnerable populations like the elderly and homeless), and can lead to increased energy demand for heating, potentially straining power grids. Such predictions are vital for proactive disaster preparedness and public health advisories.
Practice Questions (MCQs)
1. With reference to La Niña conditions and their impact on India, consider the following statements: 1. La Niña typically leads to colder than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 2. In India, La Niña conditions are generally associated with a stronger monsoon and colder winters in the northern parts. 3. The prevailing La Niña conditions are expected to reduce the frequency of Western Disturbances affecting Northwest India. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- A.1 only
- B.1 and 2 only
- C.2 and 3 only
- D.1, 2 and 3
Show Answer
Answer: B
Statement 1 is correct. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Statement 2 is correct. La Niña is generally associated with a stronger Indian monsoon and colder winters, especially in North and Northwest India, due to altered atmospheric circulation patterns. Statement 3 is incorrect. La Niña conditions are generally associated with an *increase* in the frequency and intensity of Western Disturbances, which bring winter precipitation and cold waves to Northwest India, rather than reducing them. This is a common teleconnection.
2. In the context of weather forecasting and disaster preparedness in India, consider the following statements: 1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) functions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. 2. A 'cold wave' is declared when the minimum temperature of a station is 10°C or less for plains and 0°C or less for hilly regions, and is 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal. 3. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is responsible for issuing specific public health advisories related to cold waves at the state level. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- A.1 only
- B.1 and 2 only
- C.2 and 3 only
- D.1, 2 and 3
Show Answer
Answer: B
Statement 1 is correct. IMD is indeed an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Statement 2 is correct. This is one of the criteria for declaring a cold wave by IMD. Specifically, for plains, a cold wave is declared when the minimum temperature is 10°C or less and is 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal. For hilly regions, it's 0°C or less and 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal. Statement 3 is incorrect. While NDMA provides guidelines, specific public health advisories related to cold waves at the state level are primarily issued by State Disaster Management Authorities (SDMAs) and state health departments, often based on IMD forecasts. NDMA's role is more at the national policy and guideline level.
3. Which of the following atmospheric phenomena or geographical features primarily contribute to the occurrence of cold waves in Northwest India during winter? 1. Western Disturbances 2. Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream 3. Retreating Monsoon 4. Presence of the Himalayas Select the correct answer using the code given below:
- A.1 and 2 only
- B.1, 2 and 4 only
- C.3 and 4 only
- D.1, 2, 3 and 4
Show Answer
Answer: B
Statement 1 is correct. Western Disturbances are extratropical storms originating in the Mediterranean region that bring sudden winter rain and snow to the northwestern parts of the Indian subcontinent, often followed by a drop in temperature. Statement 2 is correct. The Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream plays a crucial role in steering Western Disturbances towards India and influencing the overall winter circulation. Statement 3 is incorrect. The retreating monsoon occurs from September to December and is associated with the withdrawal of the monsoon, not directly with the primary cause of severe cold waves in Northwest India. Statement 4 is correct. The Himalayas act as a barrier, preventing the intensely cold winds from Central Asia from entering the Indian subcontinent, but also channel cold air masses, contributing to the severity of cold waves in the plains south of them when cold air penetrates. The cold air masses from Siberia and Central Asia, when they manage to cross or circumvent the Himalayas, bring significant cold. The mountains also contribute to the radiative cooling effect.