India-U.S. Trade Deal: Concerns over Autonomy and Global Credibility

Strategic autonomy refers to a country's ability to make its own foreign policy and national security decisions without undue influence or coercion from other countries. It is important for India to maintain its strategic autonomy to pursue its national interests, build relationships with various countries, and avoid being pressured into making decisions that are not in its favor. In the context of the India-U.S. trade deal, concerns arise that India's compliance with U.S. demands could undermine its strategic autonomy.

The key concerns regarding the interim India-U.S. Bilateral Trade Agreement are related to the process and potential costs. Announcements have been unilateral from Washington, with New Delhi catching up. The U.S. seeks commitments from India to reduce Russian oil imports and align on national security and foreign policy. India's compliance with U.S. demands could undermine its strategic autonomy, multi-alignment, and relationships with countries like Russia and Iran, potentially benefiting China.

Multi-alignment refers to a foreign policy approach where a country engages with multiple countries and blocs to advance its interests without being tied to any one particular alliance. It is relevant to India's foreign policy as India actively pursues multi-alignment, engaging with various countries and blocs to advance its interests. This includes strengthening ties with the U.S., Russia, the European Union, and countries in the Indo-Pacific region. India's membership in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS reflects its commitment to multi-alignment.

If India reduces Russian oil imports under pressure from the U.S., it could undermine its strategic autonomy and relationships with countries like Russia and Iran. This could also potentially benefit China. Economically, it could lead to increased energy costs if alternative sources are more expensive. Diplomatically, it could strain relations with Russia, a long-standing partner.

The key dates associated with the India-U.S. trade deal are: August 2025 when the U.S. imposed 25% punitive tariffs on India; February 2, 2026, when U.S. President Donald Trump posted about the trade deal on social media; and February 6 when Washington issued a Joint Statement and Executive Orders.

Key numbers include: 18%, representing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods in return for India reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to "Zero"; $500 billion, the value of American products that Mr. Modi committed to "buy American"; and 25%, the punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on India for Russian oil.

India's compliance with U.S. demands in the trade deal, such as reducing Russian oil imports and aligning on foreign policy, could strain its relationships with Russia and Iran. Both countries are important partners for India in terms of energy security and regional connectivity. Any perceived shift away from these countries could have diplomatic and economic consequences.

The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) was a key expression of India's strategic autonomy in the post-colonial era. It reflected a desire to avoid entanglement in superpower rivalries and forge an independent path in international relations. India's participation in NAM demonstrated its commitment to making its own foreign policy decisions without being dictated by other countries.

The India-U.S. trade deal is in the news recently because an interim agreement is expected to be announced soon. Concerns have arisen due to unilateral announcements from Washington and potential impacts on India's strategic autonomy and relationships with other countries.

Mr. Modi committed to "buy American" products worth $500 billion.