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1 Feb 2026·Source: The Hindu
4 min
Environment & EcologyEnvironment & EcologyNEWS

El Nino Likely After July, IMD Forecasts; Clarity by April

IMD forecasts potential El Nino after July, impacting monsoon; clarity in April.

El Nino Likely After July, IMD Forecasts; Clarity by April

Photo by Satyan Chawla

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a chance of El Nino conditions developing after July 2026. However, a clearer picture will emerge in April. M. Mohapatra, Director-General of IMD, indicated that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until July. El Nino, characterized by the warming of the central Pacific Ocean, is often linked to weak monsoon rainfall in India. Historically, 6 out of 10 El Nino years have resulted in depressed rainfall. Climate models show a greater than 50% chance of El Nino appearing after June, increasing to nearly 70% during July-September. Jatin Singh of Skymet warned of a potential sub-par monsoon and drought conditions. The IMD also forecasts below-normal rainfall over most of India in February, with temperatures likely to be on the higher side, except in parts of southern India.

Key Facts

1.

El Nino: Warming of central Pacific Ocean

2.

ENSO-neutral: Likely until July

3.

El Nino chance: >50% after June

4.

El Nino chance: ~70% July-September

UPSC Exam Angles

1.

GS Paper I: Geography (Climatology)

2.

GS Paper III: Environment (Climate Change)

3.

Impact of El Nino on Indian agriculture and economy

4.

Role of IMD in weather forecasting and disaster management

Visual Insights

El Nino Forecasts and Monsoon Impact

Key statistics related to the El Nino forecast and its potential impact on the Indian monsoon.

El Nino Probability (July-September)
70%

Indicates a high likelihood of El Nino conditions during the peak monsoon months, potentially affecting rainfall distribution.

El Nino Probability (After June)
50%

Highlights the increasing probability of El Nino development as the monsoon season progresses.

Historical El Nino-Monsoon Correlation
6 out of 10

Historically, 6 out of 10 El Nino years have resulted in depressed rainfall in India.

More Information

Background

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving changes in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These temperature fluctuations are linked to atmospheric pressure changes known as the Southern Oscillation. The term 'El Niño' originally referred to a warm ocean current that appeared annually off the coast of Peru and Ecuador. However, it is now used to describe the broader phenomenon of Pacific Ocean warming. Historically, El Niño events have been associated with significant disruptions to weather patterns around the globe. These events can influence rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns, leading to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. The intensity and frequency of El Niño events can vary, and scientists use various climate models to predict their occurrence and potential impacts. Understanding the Indian Monsoon and its variability is crucial for India, given its dependence on agriculture. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) plays a vital role in monitoring and forecasting weather patterns, including El Niño. The IMD uses a range of data sources and models to provide timely and accurate information to the public and policymakers. These forecasts are essential for planning and preparedness, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and disaster management. The impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon has been a subject of extensive research, with studies showing a correlation between El Niño events and weaker monsoon rainfall.

Latest Developments

Recent climate studies have focused on improving the accuracy of El Niño forecasts. Scientists are using more sophisticated models and data assimilation techniques to better understand the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. These efforts aim to provide more reliable predictions of El Niño events and their potential impacts on regional and global weather patterns. The role of Climate Change in modulating El Niño events is also an area of active research. There is ongoing debate about the precise relationship between El Niño and the Indian monsoon. While historically, El Niño has often been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, some studies suggest that the relationship is not always consistent. Other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can also influence the monsoon. The IMD's forecasts take into account these multiple factors to provide a comprehensive assessment of the monsoon outlook. Looking ahead, the IMD plans to further enhance its forecasting capabilities by incorporating new technologies and data sources. This includes the use of advanced satellite data and high-resolution climate models. The goal is to provide more detailed and localized forecasts, enabling better preparedness and response to weather-related events. The impact of Global Warming on extreme weather events is a growing concern.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is El Nino, and why is it important for the UPSC exam?

El Nino is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of the central Pacific Ocean. It's important for UPSC because it can significantly impact India's monsoon rainfall, affecting agriculture, economy, and disaster management. Understanding El Nino helps in answering questions related to climate change, monsoon patterns, and their impact on India.

2. According to the IMD forecast, what are the key timelines related to El Nino development?

The IMD forecasts that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until July. There is a greater than 50% chance of El Nino appearing after June, increasing to nearly 70% during July-September. A clearer picture is expected by April.

Exam Tip

Remember the months and percentages for Prelims MCQs.

3. How does El Nino typically affect the Indian monsoon, and what are the chances of this happening?

El Nino is often linked to weak monsoon rainfall in India. Historically, 6 out of 10 El Nino years have resulted in depressed rainfall. The IMD forecasts a greater than 50% chance of El Nino appearing after June, increasing to nearly 70% during July-September.

4. What are the potential implications of a sub-par monsoon for the Indian economy and society?

A sub-par monsoon can lead to reduced agricultural output, impacting food security and rural livelihoods. It can also lead to water scarcity, affecting industries and domestic water supply. This can further contribute to inflation and economic slowdown, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.

5. Who are the key personalities mentioned in the context of the El Nino forecast, and what are their roles?

M. Mohapatra, Director-General of IMD, provided the official forecast. Jatin Singh of Skymet warned of a potential sub-par monsoon and drought conditions. Knowing their roles helps understand the source and reliability of the information.

Exam Tip

Remember these names for potential factual questions in Prelims.

6. What is ENSO, and how is it related to El Nino?

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving changes in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the warm phase of ENSO, characterized by the warming of the ocean surface.

7. What recent developments are being made in El Nino forecasting?

Recent climate studies are focused on improving the accuracy of El Niño forecasts by using more sophisticated models and data assimilation techniques to better understand the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. These efforts aim to provide more reliable predictions of El Niño events and their potential impacts.

8. What are the key facts about the El Nino forecast that are important for Prelims?

Key facts for Prelims include: El Nino is the warming of the central Pacific Ocean, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely until July, there's a >50% chance of El Nino after June, and a ~70% chance during July-September. Also, remember that historically 6 out of 10 El Nino years have resulted in depressed rainfall in India.

9. How does the potential El Nino event impact the common citizen?

A potential El Nino event leading to a weak monsoon can impact the common citizen through increased food prices due to lower agricultural output, water scarcity affecting daily life, and potential power shortages if hydroelectric power generation is affected. It can also lead to increased health issues due to heat waves and waterborne diseases.

10. Why is the El Nino forecast in the news recently?

The El Nino forecast is in the news recently because the IMD has issued a forecast indicating a chance of El Nino conditions developing after July. This is significant due to the potential impact on the Indian monsoon and the economy.

Practice Questions (MCQs)

1. Consider the following statements regarding El Niño: 1. El Niño is characterized by the warming of the central Pacific Ocean. 2. El Niño is always associated with a strong monsoon in India. 3. Climate models show a greater than 50% chance of El Niño appearing after June 2026. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  • A.1 only
  • B.2 only
  • C.1 and 3 only
  • D.1, 2 and 3
Show Answer

Answer: C

Statement 1 is CORRECT: El Niño is characterized by the warming of the central Pacific Ocean, as stated in the article. Statement 2 is INCORRECT: The article indicates that El Niño is often linked to weak monsoon rainfall in India, not a strong monsoon. Statement 3 is CORRECT: The article mentions that climate models show a greater than 50% chance of El Niño appearing after June 2026.

2. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast mentioned in the news, when is El Niño most likely to develop?

  • A.Before July 2026
  • B.After July 2026
  • C.During February 2026
  • D.ENSO-neutral conditions are expected throughout 2026
Show Answer

Answer: B

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a chance of El Niño conditions developing after July 2026. ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until July.

3. Historically, how many out of 10 El Niño years have resulted in depressed rainfall in India, according to the news report?

  • A.4
  • B.5
  • C.6
  • D.7
Show Answer

Answer: C

The news report states that historically, 6 out of 10 El Niño years have resulted in depressed rainfall in India.

4. Consider the following statements: I. El Niño events are characterized by unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. II. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates ENSO-neutral conditions to persist until July 2026. III. Jatin Singh of Skymet has warned of potential sub-par monsoon and drought conditions due to the likely El Niño development. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  • A.II and III only
  • B.I and III only
  • C.I and II only
  • D.I, II and III
Show Answer

Answer: A

Statement I is INCORRECT: El Niño events are characterized by unusually WARM sea surface temperatures, not cold. Statement II is CORRECT: The IMD anticipates ENSO-neutral conditions to persist until July 2026. Statement III is CORRECT: Jatin Singh of Skymet has warned of potential sub-par monsoon and drought conditions.

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