West Asia Geopolitics

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Oman and Iran that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. About 20% of the world's total petroleum liquids and about 35% of petroleum liquids traded by sea pass through the strait, making it a critical chokepoint. Any disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact global energy prices and security.

The Abraham Accords, brokered by the US in 2020, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE and Bahrain. This reshaped regional alliances, creating a new bloc of countries aligned against Iran and promoting economic cooperation. However, the long-term impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains uncertain.

The Role of External Powers is significant. The US has historically been a dominant player, providing security guarantees to some countries and maintaining a strong military presence. Russia has increased its influence in recent years, particularly through its support for the Assad regime in Syria. China is expanding its economic footprint through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, seeking to secure access to energy resources and expand its political influence.

Sectarianism, particularly the rivalry between Shia-majority Iran and Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, is a major driver of conflict in the region. This rivalry plays out in proxy wars in countries like Yemen and Syria, where the two countries support opposing sides. Understanding the Shia-Sunni divide is crucial for understanding many of the region's conflicts.

Water Scarcity is an increasingly pressing issue. Many countries in West Asia face severe water shortages, which can exacerbate existing tensions and lead to conflict. The construction of dams on major rivers like the Tigris and Euphrates can create disputes between upstream and downstream countries.

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict remains a central issue. Despite numerous attempts at peace negotiations, a lasting solution remains elusive. The expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the ongoing blockade of Gaza, and the unresolved status of Jerusalem continue to fuel tensions and violence.

Yemen's Civil War is a complex conflict with regional implications. The war pits the Saudi-backed government against the Houthi rebels, who are supported by Iran. The conflict has created a humanitarian crisis and destabilized the region, with spillover effects on neighboring countries.

Turkey's Role is increasingly assertive. Under President Erdogan, Turkey has pursued a more independent foreign policy, intervening in conflicts in Syria and Libya and challenging the regional dominance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Turkey's growing military capabilities and its strategic location give it significant influence in the region.

The Kurds are an ethnic group spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. They have long sought greater autonomy or independence, leading to conflict with the governments of these countries. The Kurds played a key role in the fight against ISIS, but their aspirations for self-determination remain a source of tension.

Cyber Warfare is a growing concern. Countries in West Asia are increasingly using cyberattacks to target each other's critical infrastructure and spread disinformation. This can escalate tensions and create new forms of conflict.

The Impact of Climate Change is becoming more evident. Rising temperatures, desertification, and extreme weather events are exacerbating existing problems like water scarcity and food insecurity, potentially leading to greater instability and migration.

The Role of Non-State Actors is significant. Groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and various militias wield considerable power and influence, often acting independently of state governments. These groups can destabilize the region and complicate efforts to resolve conflicts.